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What Predicts Divorce?
Michael Hawton





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About MedAu
Usually journeys begin with much optimism and hope. So too, most marriages and long term relationships begin with a celebration and great expectations. However, many couples may eventually experience the feeling that what first attracted them to their partner in those heady days of romance now causes them grief. "Ah, yes", I hear some of you sigh.

So, the bloke who initially found his wife's ability to express her feelings attractive, now finds her capacity to use her emotions too much to bear. And, the woman who was drawn to her partner's =91silent strength' might eventually find herself frustrated by her husband's inability to express his feelings. For many couples who are going through a difficult patch, the first professional they confide in may be their GP. This article looks at some recent research that shows a link between physiological arousal during marital conflict and the level of satisfaction in a relationship.

In his research on the signs of marital distress, John Gottman, professor of psychology at the University of Washington, decided to focus on two questions:

  1. How do long term relationships change over time?
  2. Are there any particular patterns that characterise those couples whose relationships deteriorate over time?

Through videotaping and monitoring couples while they were discussing a major area of disagreement in their marriage, Gottman observed facial expressions and changes in physiology such as heart rates, blood velocity, skin conductance and gross motor movement. He hypothesised that the higher the physiological arousal the more likely the longitudinal deterioration of the marriage.

Couples at time 1, who had faster heart beats, who sweated more and moved more during marital interaction, or even when sitting quietly but anticipating marital conflict, had marriages which, three years later at time 2, had deteriorated. Using the physiological data gathered at time 1, particularly that of the husband, Gottman found that he had a 90 per cent success rate predicting which couples would have separated by time 2. These results are about as strong as, for example, those studies that link blood cholesterol with cardiovascular disease. Conversely, couples who were physiologically calmer during their interaction had marriages that improved over time.

Also, some patterns of relating were strong indicators of a relationship in trouble. When female partners were only compliant and agreeable, marriages would deteriorate. Similarly, when husbands withdrew as listeners in a pattern called stonewalling (characterised by avoiding eye contact, a rigid neck, few facial expressions, and not using the usual non-verbal means of communicating - such as nods or brief vocalisations), marital satisfaction decreased over time.

Gottman believes men stonewall because they feel flooded by the emotions involved in conflict and he showed that they took longer to recover. Women emoted more quickly but they also recovered more quickly. Stonewalling is frustrating for the wife, who then works harder to try to re-engage her husband. Eventually, the wife will tire of trying to engage the husband, then she also withdraws expressing criticism and disgust. When both partners have withdrawn and are defensive, the relationship is on its way to separation and divorce.

Another interesting finding was that men who did housework were less overwhelmed by their wife's emotions, less likely to avoid conflict and had lower heart rates during conflict than men who did no housework. As well, hot marital conflict by itself is not destructive to marriage if it also includes positive affects, such as touch, humour, positive problem-solving, agreement and non-defensive listening. Positive affects reduce physiological arousal. And, for marriage to be on an improving path, the ratio of positive to negative events needs to exceed 10 to 1.

In conclusion, if a patient says they are easily agitated in situations of conflict or they are experiencing heightened physiological responses then they probably need some assistance. If a husband says that he often feels like walking out and a wife says that she is losing respect for her partner this couple's relationship is deteriorating.

The future of marital/couple therapy, according to Gottman, may simply mean helping couples to monitor their physiological responses during fights, promoting more realistic self talk, showing men ways not to withdraw and women how to better express their requests. Finally, couples can be taught better ways of resolving conflict. On this note, I agree with Winston Churchill who once said: "To jaw-jaw is better than to war-war."

Michael Hawton

Counselling Psychologist



Discussion
Effects of Divorce
What Predicts Divorce?
Effects of Divorce

Angela White, WHITE_AL@casa.gov.au
Posted 30/5/00 4:17 PM


The whole issue of women emoting quickly interests me. I am a woman who becomes emotional very quickly, emotions often building to anger when a conflict of opinions/emotions becomes evident in a relationship. It is something I battle with and have always battled with, in my relationships with men, particularly men who stonewall, who care calm and seemingly unemotional.
I am particularly prone to this erratic behaviour at the moment due to a period of depression caused by my separation. Intense feelings of failure and low self worth are threatening to destroy a new relationship I have with a wonderful new man in my life. He truly is the most compatible person I have met to date and I am concerned that due to so much relationship failure, I will just give up when we reach points of conflict, as all relationshiops inevitably do. I am now contemplating anti-depressants because I believe if the depression could be relieved, perhaps I will be able to deal with conflict more effectively.
On the subject of divorce, perhaps some people cope better then others. I have personally found it quite traumatic. It is almost 12 months since we separated, and I still cry readily and feel an enormous sense of failure and regret. Sometimes I think I will never recover. To other people, especially my new partner, I appear very negative and appear to be very past orientated, rather then future orientated. I think further articles on how to actually recover from divorce, would be very useful.
Thanks.



Terry, elplus2@idx.com.au
Posted 18/7/2000 11:31 PM


You have touched on topics which I find very relevant to my experience. My wife and I seperated in January 2000 although she had made up her mind in November after an affair of 8 months duration the year before. At her request we got back together for a year to give it one more try. Forgiveness was harder to find than I thought as was her love for me. Unfortunately I was still in love with her after 20 years of marriage.

She was the victim of childhood sexual abuse and was unable to embrace true intimacy. We had role reversal as I was the one who wanted to talk about emotional issues. Family matters are paramount to me.

I suppose this emotional orientation has paid dividends in that my 16 & 18 year old daughters feel closer to me than their mother. Single fathers are a rarety and not considered in society, the business world or socially. My girls have had enough of uncertainty and insecurity to last a lifetime.

My goal is to be a dad that they can depend on emotionally and physically.

A family is something in which you should be able to trust.

Responsible Dad 44.



What Predicts Divorce?

Miranda Kolbeck, scroggin_69@hotmail.com
Posted 30/10 1:07


I thought the article was interesting although it could have been in more detail. Recently my parents were divorced and it's tough let me tell you! It's been a year next month and they still fight like cats and dogs about the smallest things. October 18 was my birthday and they got ina huge fight on my Sweet 16th. I'd like to tell you more but I don't have time. thank you




Miranda Kolbeck, scroggin_69@hotmail.com
Posted 30/10 1:07


I thought the article was interesting although it could have been in more detail. Recently my parents were divorced and it's tough let me tell you! It's been a year next month and they still fight like cats and dogs about the smallest things. October 18 was my birthday and they got ina huge fight on my Sweet 16th. I'd like to tell you more but I don't have time. thank you




Bernadette, redmond@bytesite.com.au
Posted 12/5/00 3:15 PM


Thank you so much for your article --
I feel you wrote this acticle about me!!
This is so like my experience.

When I met my husband I WAS very attracted to his quite,gentle nature.

During our ten years of marriage I did try to converse with my husband on a deep level this he didn't want and I would be unbelievably complient to his every wish in an attempt to have him talk to me (really let me know what made him tick). As he would stonewall all attempts to talk, this would make me try much harder, until I was not even being true to myself.

I had become a door mat that he had lost all respect for. But I had lost all respect for myself as well.This became the pattern for our relationship but we were busy,he with his career(which we relocated houses for-17 times in 10 years).I was busy having babies and working part-time.

Ten years after we wwre married one of our five children was diagnosed with Leukaemia I no longer could be complient to my husband, my reserves had gone.

So had his. He became aggessive, demanding and psycologically unwell. He decided to leave the children and me so he could contiue his career!

I wish now that we had learned to communnicate well enough to have unabled us to be supportive of each other when we most needed to.






DD, ironcones@hotmail.com
Posted 7/8/2000 11:39 AM


I turned to this page to find help in my situation. After 14 years of marriage, I am thinking of seperating from my husband. I have 2 young girls and mostly worry of them. I have put their needs and my husbands above and beyond my own for years. I no longer want to just be a wife and a mom but also a person. It is difficult to talk to family and friends of my unhappiness, because to everyone this must be the perfect marriage. But as it was stated in this article, I too have a spouse that does not wish to communicate his feelings and needs nor discuss mine or the families. I have asked for a marriage counselor but he refuses, once again talking to a person is out of the question. I often why he refuses to speak to me about what should be the most important thing in his life, his family.





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It was originally posted on 30/8/1998; 8:22:00 PM.
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